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Sergey's avatar

Great analysis on $NOW, I've added to my position few days ago. 👍

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SHP's avatar

Thanks for your analysis! I think that the FCF should should always be reported without SBC, so, for example, the Rule of 40 would actually be 54 minus 20 % is only 34 %. But I agree with you that this doesn’t really matter if they continue growing at this pace and can steadily increase adjusted FCF. It’s also important that they’re now aiming to push SBC below 15%.

I hadn’t even considered the CRM angle, and that explains why the market values NOW significantly higher than HUBS at a similar valuation and cash flow trajectory.

The current weakness is probably also related to the seat-based billing model. Do you think they’ll switch future contracts to per-ticket billing—or is that already happening? For example, AI-automated ticket resolutions being billed instead of seats? That would tie revenue more closely to the economy. At least the pricing approach will likely change so they’re not too dependent on seats. But creativity here is virtually unlimited, and anyone who already uses NOW isn’t going to abandon it just because of new pricing.

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