Agree that capex guidance is the tell to watch; with 2-3 years of customer visibility, a mid-year trim to TSMC's capex budget would likely show up well before any slowdown hits reported revenue.
Thanks for yet another excellent, well grounded report! Here’s my question: the AI advances have not changed human nature so at some point - I don’t believe we are there yet - we are likely to overbuild, overinvest in AI. TSMC will be one company people look to for a signal that we are in bubble territory. What will you be watching at TSMC for that signal?
TSMC will definitely be one of the first to give these signals. I would probably focus on Capex. TSMC has 2-3 year visibility. Once it sees demand ahead weaken and commitments slow, it will first limit Capex growth or revise this down during the year, which would be a signal to us that demand is weakening.
That is what I would be watching most closely, in addition to management's commentary.
Agree that capex guidance is the tell to watch; with 2-3 years of customer visibility, a mid-year trim to TSMC's capex budget would likely show up well before any slowdown hits reported revenue.
Thanks for yet another excellent, well grounded report! Here’s my question: the AI advances have not changed human nature so at some point - I don’t believe we are there yet - we are likely to overbuild, overinvest in AI. TSMC will be one company people look to for a signal that we are in bubble territory. What will you be watching at TSMC for that signal?
TSMC will definitely be one of the first to give these signals. I would probably focus on Capex. TSMC has 2-3 year visibility. Once it sees demand ahead weaken and commitments slow, it will first limit Capex growth or revise this down during the year, which would be a signal to us that demand is weakening.
That is what I would be watching most closely, in addition to management's commentary.
Thank you for the kind words!
Thank you. Excellent work as always.
Thanks a lot, Kris!